Skip to content
Sign inAccount
Menu
Sign inAccount
Set an alertAdd to watchlist: Rain
RainCommon
56/100STRICT
Common
#21market cap16 Oct 2026

Rain

AI, technical infrastructure weightsMarket-cap rank 21, CoinGecko 23 Oct 2026
Fundamentals, not price
PillarRatingPosition on the 0 to 100 scaleWeightAdds
Sustainability50×0.189.00
Transparency55×0.147.70
Revenue40×0.145.60
Innovation72×0.2618.72
Community55×0.147.70
Tokenomics50×0.147.00
Weighted sum, weights total 1.0055.72Rounds to the published score56
Analysed
16 Oct 2026
Engine
v5.2.0
Computed
2026-10-16 05:34 UTC
Inputs hash
d39fc21e7d6b

Pro opens Rain in full. Change, scenario, signal, risk factors, catalysts.

See plans

Research, not financial advice. Read the terms.

Pillar evidence

Input set 16 Oct 2026. 6 sources, 14 citations.
Each arc is one pillar rating, drawn to scale from 0 to 100.
Sustainability50

Can this project keep operating and funding itself for years?

Rain operates a live Arbitrum prediction-market protocol with documented creator, liquidity, and resolver roles. Primary documentation still omits treasury runway figures, audited financial statements, or verified long-term user retention metrics.123

Transparency55

Can outsiders see and check what the team and the protocol do?

Rain publishes tokenomics and governance guides, but official pages contradict each other on utility. The token overview requires RAIN for Trading Power, whereas the DAO page says traders need no RAIN.14

Revenue40

Does the protocol earn real fees or income from use?

Protocol rules route 2.5% of market trading volume toward RAIN buybacks and burns. However, official pages conflict on fee-burn percentages and disclose no audited protocol revenue totals or holder payouts.56

Innovation72

Is the technology being built and shipped, and does it matter?

Rain combines permissionless public and private prediction markets on Arbitrum with developer SDKs and APIs. Public markets use AI-assisted oracle settlement with a dispute layer, while creators resolve private markets.21

Community55

Who uses, builds and holds it, and how durable is that base?

CoinGecko tracks RAIN across centralized and Arbitrum DEX venues alongside documented creator and resolver incentives. Independent data on daily active traders, third-party SDK builders, and organic market volume remains sparse.24

Tokenomics50

Do supply, issuance and unlocks protect holders from dilution?

CoinGecko reports 716.6B RAIN circulating out of a 1.15T maximum supply (62.3%, applying the -1.5 moderate dilution penalty). Trading burns are partially offset because 10% of burned tokens are reminted.253

Sources
  1. 1rain.one/docs/Help-Center/AbouttheRAINtokenCited for Sustainability, Transparency, Innovation
  2. 2coingecko.com/en/coins/rainCited for Sustainability, Innovation, Community, Tokenomics
  3. 3arbiscan.io/token/0x25118290e6a5f4139381d072181157035864099dCited for Sustainability, Tokenomics
  4. 4rain.one/docs/Help-Center/DAOgovernanceCited for Transparency, Community
  5. 5rain.one/docs/Help-Center/InflationdeflationmechanismCited for Revenue, Tokenomics
  6. 6rain.one/docs/Help-Center/PlatformFeesCited for Revenue

About Rain

Analysis of 16 Oct 2026

Rain is an Arbitrum prediction-market protocol offering SDKs and APIs for custom forecasting applications. Public markets settle through an AI oracle framework with a dispute layer, while private-market creators resolve outcomes directly.

Full overviewShow less

The RAIN token covers DAO governance and contributor rewards for market creators, liquidity providers, and resolvers. Official documentation conflicts on core access utility as of October 2026.

The token overview states holding RAIN is required for Trading Power, whereas the DAO page says users need no RAIN to trade. CoinGecko lists 716.6 billion RAIN circulating out of a 1.15 trillion maximum supply (62.3%).

The protocol directs 2.5% of market trading volume to buybacks and burns, while reminting 10% of burned tokens for foundation uses.

Investment thesis

RAIN provides exposure to permissionless prediction-market infrastructure on Arbitrum rather than a single consumer application. The upside case relies on third-party builders adopting Rain SDKs and APIs to launch custom forecasting venues.

Full thesisShow less

Rising market volume would fund the 2.5% trading-volume buyback-and-burn mechanism faster than the 10% foundation remint. However, fundamental constraints dominate the current risk profile as of October 2026.

CoinGecko reports only 716.6 billion of the 1.15 trillion maximum supply in circulation, leaving 37.7% uncirculated overhang against roughly $24.0 million in locked value. Rain does not publish audited protocol revenue statements or verified active-user counts.

Furthermore, official Help Center pages contradict each other on whether traders must hold RAIN or whether 2.5% of volume versus 100% of fees funds burns. Until on-chain fee volume and token demand are proven, valuation risk remains elevated.

Strengths
  • Arbitrum infrastructure. Native deployment on Arbitrum supports low-cost creation and trading across permissionless public and private prediction markets.
  • Builder tooling. SDKs and APIs allow third-party developers to launch custom forecasting applications on shared liquidity.
  • Hybrid resolution. Public markets use an AI oracle settlement framework paired with a documented dispute layer for contested outcomes.
  • Governance and incentives. RAIN coordinates DAO proposals and rewards market creators, liquidity providers, and outcome resolvers.
  • Volume-linked burns. Protocol rules allocate 2.5% of market trading volume toward buying and burning RAIN tokens.
Risks
  • Uncirculated supply. About 37.7% of the 1.15T maximum supply remains outside circulation as of October 2026.
  • Valuation vs TVL. Multi-billion-dollar implied valuation sits hundreds of times above the roughly $24.0M locked in protocol contracts.
  • Documentation contradictions. Official Help Center pages disagree on whether RAIN ownership is mandatory for market access and how burn rates apply.
  • Foundation remint. Reminting 10% of burned tokens for foundation initiatives reduces net deflation from trading activity.
  • Settlement disputes. AI-oracle resolution on public markets and creator-resolved private markets carry oracle manipulation and dispute risks.
Competitive position

Rain differentiates itself within prediction markets by focusing on builder SDKs, APIs, and hybrid AI-oracle settlement on Arbitrum. Competitors such as Polymarket on Polygon and Azuro across EVM chains command deeper liquidity, higher verified trading volume, and stronger brand recognition.

Full positionShow less

Rain targets custom private and public market creation, which broadens potential use cases. However, roughly $24.0 million in reported TVL trails its implied valuation by a wide margin.

Without audited fee disclosures or consistent token-utility rules, Rain has yet to establish a durable moat against established prediction venues.

Conclusion

Rain combines Arbitrum prediction-market infrastructure, developer SDKs, AI-assisted settlement, and a 2.5% volume burn mechanism. Despite those product features, the fundamental profile carries an 8/10 risk score as of October 2026.

Full conclusionShow less

Only 62.3% of the 1.15 trillion maximum supply circulates, protocol TVL near $24.0 million is small relative to valuation, and official docs conflict on token utility. CAUTION remains warranted until Rain demonstrates verified fee generation and consistent tokenomics.

Add to watchlist