Prediction Track Record
This page is our append-only prediction ledger of published price targets, measured honestly, including the parts that do not flatter us.
Every call shown was reconstructed from the dated, git-recorded history of our published analyses (oldest Dec 2025); none has been logged live at publication yet. Cycle-scale targets have not resolved, so here is everything measurable so far.
2,787
Logged predictions
756
Coins covered
Dec 2025
Oldest analysis
2,782
Outcomes scored
561
Resolved so far
2,031
Revised targets
Calibration
Honest caveat: not one prediction has reached its full 12-month horizon yet (the oldest has run 313 days). Only 561 events have settled, every one by an early base-target touch, none by the horizon elapsing. So the rates below are interim lower bounds, not settled calibration.
| Implied probability | Predictions | Mean implied | Base touched | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 246 | 10.9% | 39.4% | interim |
| 20–40% | 819 | 28.9% | 26.6% | interim |
| 40–60% | 969 | 47.8% | 12.9% | interim |
| 60–80% | 670 | 67.3% | 14.9% | interim |
| 80–100% | 78 | 85.4% | 26.9% | interim |
Resolvability follows the same rule as our backtest job: an event settles only when the horizon fully elapses or the target is touched. Nothing has elapsed yet.
Base touched: Share of predictions in this bucket whose base target has been reached at any point since publication. While horizons are open this is a lower bound, not a final hit-rate. It does not measure the 12-month probability shown on coin pages, which is about the price at the end of the 12 months.
80% interval coverage
No interval targets logged yet. The legacy-backfill rows carry point targets only; coverage will populate once v5 predictions with 80% bands land.
Low (P10) breach vs implied
33.9%
Observed breach frequency
55.3%
Mean implied probability
Horizons are still open, so the observed frequency can only rise from here. Read it as a floor, not a verdict.
Target-revision churn
Showing 12 of 756 coins covered by the ledger
| Coin | Revisions | Base target range | Spread | Base-target path | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADI | 17 (11 distinct) | $2.8 – $7.5 | +168% | $2.8 → $5.2 | |
| BNB | 17 (10 distinct) | $900 – $1,480 | +64% | $1,050 → $900 | |
| Uniswap | 16 (13 distinct) | $7.5 – $28.75 | +283% | $12 → $7.5 | |
| Polkadot | 16 (12 distinct) | $2.1 – $8 | +281% | $8 → $2.1 | |
| Gram (prev. Toncoin) | 16 (12 distinct) | $2.25 – $8.5 | +278% | $2.5 → $3.75 | |
| Sui | 16 (12 distinct) | $2 – $6.5 | +225% | $2.85 → $2 | |
| Dash | 16 (10 distinct) | $50 – $185 | +270% | $86.23 → $60 | |
| Dogecoin | 16 (9 distinct) | $0.2 – $0.35 | +75% | $0.2 → $0.21 | |
| Chainlink | 16 (8 distinct) | $18 – $53.03 | +195% | $35 → $18 | |
| Litecoin | 16 (8 distinct) | $85 – $163 | +92% | $130 → $85 | |
| Tezos | 16 (6 distinct) | $0.9645 – $2.34 | +143% | $0.9645 → $2 | |
| Pudgy Penguins | 16 (6 distinct) | $0.0189 – $0.0369 | +95% | $0.025 → $0.02 |
Spread is the highest published base target over the lowest. The path plots every base value in publication order. A flat line means a stable call, a jagged one means we kept moving the goalposts.
Per-coin ledger
Showing the ledgers of 8 of 756 coins: the biggest churners and the majors
ADI17 revisionsJan 29, 2026 – Jun 25, 2026Low (P10) $0.7Base $5.2High (P90) $7.8
| Published | Low (P10) | Base | High (P90) | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | $0.85 | $2.8 | $6.5 | 45% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 16, 2026 | $1.2 | $3.5 | $7.5 | 45% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 22, 2026 | $1 | $3.8 | $8.5 | 45% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 9, 2026 | $0.737 | $6.98 | $13.73 | 22% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 8, 2026 | $0.85 | $7.5 | $15 | 25% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 9, 2026 | $0.7 | $7 | $14 | 25% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 10, 2026 | $0.6 | $6 | $12 | 25% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 12, 2026 | $0.5 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 13, 2026 | $0.5 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 14, 2026 | $0.4 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 15, 2026 | $0.4 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 17, 2026 | $0.4 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 18, 2026 | $0.35 | $4.5 | $9 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 19, 2026 | $0.3 | $4 | $8.5 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 21, 2026 | $0.3 | $4 | $8.5 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 27, 2026 | $0.3 | $4 | $8.5 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 25, 2026 | $0.7 | $5.2 | $7.8 | 18% | legacy backfill |
BNB17 revisionsDec 10, 2025 – Jun 18, 2026Low (P10) $420Base $900High (P90) $1,600
| Published | Low (P10) | Base | High (P90) | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | $550 | $1,050 | $1,600 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $500 | $1,100 | $1,800 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $500 | $1,100 | $1,800 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 29, 2025 | $426.23 | $1,398 | $3,495 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $440 | $1,430 | $3,608 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $440 | $1,430 | $3,608 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 12, 2026 | $440 | $1,430 | $3,608 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 15, 2026 | $470 | $1,480 | $3,876 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 18, 2026 | $470 | $1,480 | $3,876 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 23, 2026 | $475 | $1,200 | $3,750 | 76% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 25, 2026 | $475 | $1,200 | $3,750 | 76% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $475 | $1,100 | $3,250 | 76% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $430 | $950 | $2,600 | 76% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 1, 2026 | $450 | $980 | $2,580 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $256.9 | $1,407 | $2,826 | 62% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 25, 2026 | $450 | $900 | $1,800 | 62% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 18, 2026 | $420 | $900 | $1,600 | 58% | legacy backfill |
Uniswap16 revisionsDec 13, 2025 – Jun 20, 2026Low (P10) $1.5Base $7.5High (P90) $18
| Published | Low (P10) | Base | High (P90) | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | $3.5 | $12 | $25 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $4 | $10 | $18 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $4.5 | $12 | $20 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 28, 2025 | $3.02 | $28.75 | $71.88 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $2.9 | $8.77 | $69.04 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $2.9 | $8.77 | $69.04 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 13, 2026 | $2.7 | $8.5 | $68.7 | 72% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 17, 2026 | $2.7 | $8.5 | $68.7 | 72% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $2.5 | $9.2 | $64.8 | 74% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 27, 2026 | $2.3 | $8.6 | $60.6 | 74% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $1.88 | $8.3 | $60.6 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $1.75 | $8 | $56.4 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $2.31 | $10.72 | $23.48 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 26, 2026 | $1.78 | $8.9 | $22.42 | 79% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 27, 2026 | $1.82 | $9.1 | $22.93 | 79% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 20, 2026 | $1.5 | $7.5 | $18 | 63% | legacy backfill |
Polkadot16 revisionsDec 13, 2025 – Jun 20, 2026Low (P10) $0.45Base $2.1High (P90) $5.25
| Published | Low (P10) | Base | High (P90) | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | $3 | $8 | $20 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $1.58 | $3.5 | $8 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $1.5 | $4.18 | $10.4 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 28, 2025 | $0.92 | $4.71 | $11.78 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 5, 2026 | $1.06 | $5.39 | $13.63 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 12, 2026 | $1.06 | $7.18 | $13.63 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 17, 2026 | $1.04 | $7.18 | $13.31 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $1.04 | $5.9 | $12.61 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 27, 2026 | $1.04 | $5.9 | $12.61 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.92 | $4.8 | $12.61 | 50% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $0.92 | $3.02 | $14.04 | 50% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.9 | $3 | $9.86 | 50% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.6 | $7.54 | $18.75 | 48% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 26, 2026 | $0.6 | $3.5 | $12 | 45% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 27, 2026 | $0.5 | $3 | $10 | 40% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 20, 2026 | $0.45 | $2.1 | $5.25 | 38% | legacy backfill |
Gram (prev. Toncoin)16 revisionsDec 13, 2025 – Jun 18, 2026Low (P10) $0.75Base $3.75High (P90) $8
| Published | Low (P10) | Base | High (P90) | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | $0.8 | $2.5 | $5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $0.8 | $2.25 | $5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $1 | $2.35 | $12 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 28, 2025 | $0.83 | $6.37 | $15.94 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $0.85 | $8.5 | $20.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $1.2 | $4.5 | $11 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 13, 2026 | $1.15 | $4.8 | $11.25 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 17, 2026 | $1.3 | $3.5 | $8.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $1.3 | $3.5 | $8.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $1.1 | $3.2 | $7.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $1 | $3 | $6.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $1 | $3 | $6.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $1 | $3 | $6.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 3, 2026 | $0.524 | $3.92 | $8.78 | 62% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 26, 2026 | $0.55 | $3.5 | $8.5 | 58% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 18, 2026 | $0.75 | $3.75 | $8 | 55% | legacy backfill |
Sui16 revisionsDec 11, 2025 – Jun 19, 2026Low (P10) $0.35Base $2High (P90) $4.5
| Published | Low (P10) | Base | High (P90) | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | $1.1 | $2.85 | $5.5 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $1 | $2.5 | $4.5 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $0.85 | $2.75 | $5.5 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 28, 2025 | $0.72 | $5.88 | $14.69 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $0.72 | $5.88 | $14.69 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $0.72 | $5.88 | $14.69 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 13, 2026 | $0.85 | $6.5 | $18 | 72% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 17, 2026 | $0.75 | $5.5 | $16 | 68% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $0.75 | $5.5 | $16 | 68% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 24, 2026 | $0.65 | $5.5 | $16 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $0.6 | $5 | $15 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.6 | $4 | $15 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.5 | $3.5 | $12 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 3, 2026 | $0.3815 | $2.89 | $6.49 | 48% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 26, 2026 | $0.4 | $3 | $7 | 50% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 19, 2026 | $0.35 | $2 | $4.5 | 45% | legacy backfill |
Bitcoin15 revisionsDec 11, 2025 – Jun 16, 2026Low (P10) $36,000Base $115,000High (P90) $200,000
| Published | Low (P10) | Base | High (P90) | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | $75,000 | $150,000 | $250,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $70,000 | $180,000 | $250,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $70,000 | $125,000 | $200,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 29, 2025 | $43,773 | $105,055 | $262,638 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $65,000 | $143,000 | $250,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $70,000 | $150,000 | $230,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 12, 2026 | $75,000 | $170,000 | $250,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 15, 2026 | $75,000 | $110,000 | $225,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 23, 2026 | $75,000 | $150,000 | $225,000 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $70,000 | $130,000 | $200,000 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $55,000 | $120,000 | $185,000 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 1, 2026 | $50,000 | $130,000 | $175,000 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $27,939 | $116,295 | $202,556 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 24, 2026 | $35,000 | $120,000 | $200,000 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 16, 2026 | $36,000 | $115,000 | $200,000 | 78% | legacy backfill |
Ethereum15 revisionsDec 11, 2025 – Jun 16, 2026Low (P10) $1,250Base $5,000High (P90) $10,500
| Published | Low (P10) | Base | High (P90) | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | $2,500 | $7,500 | $15,000 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $2,400 | $4,600 | $7,800 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $2,400 | $4,400 | $7,200 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 29, 2025 | $1,466 | $7,152 | $17,880 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $1,555 | $7,577 | $18,977 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $1,500 | $7,500 | $18,300 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 12, 2026 | $1,800 | $6,500 | $15,000 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 15, 2026 | $1,900 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 23, 2026 | $1,850 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 82% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $1,500 | $6,500 | $11,000 | 82% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $1,200 | $5,500 | $10,000 | 82% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 1, 2026 | $1,200 | $5,500 | $10,000 | 82% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $1,213 | $4,993 | $10,512 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 24, 2026 | $1,250 | $5,000 | $10,500 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 16, 2026 | $1,250 | $5,000 | $10,500 | 78% | legacy backfill |
About legacy-backfill rows
Every prediction shown so far carries the legacy-backfill engine tag: it was reconstructed from historical analyses to seed the ledger, not emitted by the live v5 scorer. We flag it explicitly rather than blend it in. New predictions land with a versioned engine tag and full 80% intervals.
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