How the STRICT score works
The STRICT score rates a crypto asset's fundamentals from 0 to 100 as the sector-weighted mean of six pillar ratings whose initials spell STRICT: Sustainability, Transparency, Revenue, Innovation, Community and Tokenomics.
The six pillars
Each pillar answers one question. Each rating runs from 0 to 100 with a written rationale and numbered sources.
- SustainabilityCan this project keep operating and funding itself for years?
- TransparencyCan outsiders see and check what the team and the protocol do?
- RevenueDoes the protocol earn real fees or income from use?
- InnovationIs the technology being built and shipped, and does it matter?
- CommunityWho uses, builds and holds it, and how durable is that base?
- TokenomicsDo supply, issuance and unlocks protect holders from dilution?
Nine weight profiles and the sector map
The sector selects the profile, and the number after each sector counts its coins among the 970 analysed. A sector with no profile of its own uses the balanced profile.
| Profile and sectors | Sustainability | Transparency | Revenue | Innovation | Community | Tokenomics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonetaryStore of Value (3)Bitcoin is scored with this profile | 0.26 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Network protocolSmart Contract Platform (30), Layer 1 (34), Layer 2 (25) | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| Financial protocolDeFi (142), Exchange (20), Launchpad (5) | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Technical infrastructureInfrastructure (97), AI (94), DePIN (17), Privacy (20), Identity (7), Wallet (5), Social (7), IoT (3), Telecom (2) | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Payments and RWARWA (91), Payments (20) | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Adoption-ledMeme (61), Gaming (55), Entertainment (6), NFT (10), Sports (5) | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Stable assetStablecoin (108) | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| DerivativeWrapped Token (32), Liquid Staking (37) | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| BalancedAny sector without its own profile, including Other (34) | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
The arithmetic, worked on Bitcoin
Each rating is multiplied by its weight in the monetary profile. The products sum, are divided by the weight applied, and round to the published score.
Bitcoin
BTCLegendaryWhat changed. No score change. Bitcoin Core 31.1 maintenance in July 2026 and October 2026 32.0 release candidates confirm steady protocol stewardship.
- Analysed
- 15 Oct 2026
- Engine
- v5.2.0
- Computed
- 2026-10-15 05:16 UTC
- Inputs hash
- 377c04740253
Pillars that do not apply
A pillar that does not apply is marked N/A with its reason and removed from the mean, never scored as zero. The remaining weights renormalise, and a report prints the applied weight when it is below 1.00.
Bitcoin's revenue is N/A (store of value). The monetary profile gives revenue a weight of 0.00, so the applied weight stays 1.00 and nothing is renormalised.
The displayed arithmetic reproduces the published score for 970 of 970 coins.
Rarity bands
Each score carries the rarity of its band. Rarity labels the fundamentals score, not price.
| Rarity | From | To | Coins of 970 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 90 | 100 | 9 |
| Epic | 80 | 89 | 79 |
| Rare | 70 | 79 | 243 |
| Uncommon | 60 | 69 | 251 |
| Common | 0 | 59 | 388 |
Risk
Risk is a separate 1 to 10 score with its own factors. It does not change the STRICT score, but it enters the engine signal and caps the 12-month probability.
The 12-month probability
The 12-month probability, the engine's pBase, is the modelled chance that a coin is priced at or above its analysis-day price 12 months later; for Bitcoin it is 86%. Values stay between 5% and 90% for non-stablecoins and at most 65% when risk is 7 or more.
The cycle scenario
Bitcoin's next-cycle peak is estimated by fusing two estimators (diminishing ATH-multiple decay and a running-max price model). Each coin's targets are its price at analysis times the Bitcoin cycle multiple raised to the coin's effective beta to Bitcoin.
When a coin has no cycle inputs, the targets are the 12-month lognormal band instead; stablecoins have none.
Cycle-peak scenario
about 39 months, log scale, USD- Low (P10)
- $91,710
- Median (P50)
- $159,100
- High (P90)
- $276,100
Cycle-peak scenario: low (P10) $91,710, median (P50) $159,100, high (P90) $276,100, against a price at analysis of $83,280.
The low case (1.10× the price at analysis) sits above that price: the scenarios are percentiles of the cycle peak, not drawdowns.
- High (P90) as a multiple of that price
- 3.3×
- Engine signal, not investment advice
- Strong buy
Scenario, not a forecast. Low, median and high are the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the engine's estimate of the next Bitcoin cycle peak.
The engine signal
The engine signal comes from the STRICT score, the risk score and the 12-month probability; the first matching row wins. It shows on a full report: ranks 1 to 10 signed out, 1 to 20 with a free account, every analysed coin with Pro or Enterprise.
| Signal | STRICT at least | Risk at most | 12-month probability at least |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong buy | 75 | 4 | 60% |
| Buy | 65 | 5 | 50% |
| Accumulate | 55 | 6 | No minimum |
| Hold | 45 | 7 | No minimum |
| Caution | 30 | 8 | No minimum |
| Avoid | Any coin that matches none of the rows above | ||
A Strong buy, Buy or Accumulate also needs a base case at or above 95% of the price at analysis. A coin that meets a row but not this floor gets Hold.
The engine stamp
Every report closes with a stamp: the analysis date, the engine version, the computation time in UTC and a hash of the inputs.
849 of the 970 analysed coins carry a v5.2.0 stamp; the other 121 predate engine v5 and say so instead. Analyses run from 10 Dec 2025 to 22 Oct 2026.
Calibration status
Calibration of the 12-month probability and the scenario is provisional. The track record page logs every published prediction. Its calibration table counts, for every row, how often a base target was touched. That is a different event from the 12-month probability, so the table is not its calibration. Predictions from the current engine can be scored against the 12-month probability only once their 12-month horizon has elapsed, and none is scored that way yet.
Editorial responsibility
About and editorial standardsCoin analyses carry no personal sign-off. No version of the site goes live until every analysis passes an automated check of its data format and of its score ranges. When our refresh process updates an analysis that has research inputs on file, the STRICT engine computes its price targets, cycle potential and probability from those inputs, and only after the inputs pass validation. Blog posts approved by Kamyar Taher, Editor-in-Chief, carry the line “Reviewed by Kamyar Taher, Editor-in-Chief”. Clashware Sàrl, Lausanne, is responsible for the method and the engine.