- Analisado
- 16 de out. de 2026
- Motor
- v5.2.0
- Calculado
- 2026-10-16 05:34 UTC
- Hash de entradas
- d39fc21e7d6b
O Lite desbloqueia Rain por completo. Variação, cenário, sinal, fatores de risco, catalisadores.
Pesquisa, não constitui aconselhamento financeiro. Leia os termos.
Evidências dos pilares
Conjunto de dados 16 de out. de 2026. 6 fontes, 14 citações.Em inglês
Sustentabilidade50
Este projeto consegue continuar operando e se financiando por anos?
Rain operates a live Arbitrum prediction-market protocol with documented creator, liquidity, and resolver roles. Primary documentation still omits treasury runway figures, audited financial statements, or verified long-term user retention metrics.123
Transparência55
Receita40
Inovação72
Comunidade55
Tokenomics50
Fontes
- 1rain.one/docs/Help-Center/AbouttheRAINtokenCitado por Sustentabilidade, Transparência, Inovação
- 2coingecko.com/en/coins/rainCitado por Sustentabilidade, Inovação, Comunidade, Tokenomics
- 3arbiscan.io/token/0x25118290e6a5f4139381d072181157035864099dCitado por Sustentabilidade, Tokenomics
- 4rain.one/docs/Help-Center/DAOgovernanceCitado por Transparência, Comunidade
- 5rain.one/docs/Help-Center/InflationdeflationmechanismCitado por Receita, Tokenomics
- 6rain.one/docs/Help-Center/PlatformFeesCitado por Receita
Sobre Rain
Análise de 16 de out. de 2026Em inglês Tradução pendente: esta análise é apresentada em inglês.
Rain is an Arbitrum prediction-market protocol offering SDKs and APIs for custom forecasting applications. Public markets settle through an AI oracle framework with a dispute layer, while private-market creators resolve outcomes directly.
Visão geral completaMostrar menos
The RAIN token covers DAO governance and contributor rewards for market creators, liquidity providers, and resolvers. Official documentation conflicts on core access utility as of October 2026.
The token overview states holding RAIN is required for Trading Power, whereas the DAO page says users need no RAIN to trade. CoinGecko lists 716.6 billion RAIN circulating out of a 1.15 trillion maximum supply (62.3%).
The protocol directs 2.5% of market trading volume to buybacks and burns, while reminting 10% of burned tokens for foundation uses.
Tese de investimento
RAIN provides exposure to permissionless prediction-market infrastructure on Arbitrum rather than a single consumer application. The upside case relies on third-party builders adopting Rain SDKs and APIs to launch custom forecasting venues.
Tese completaMostrar menos
Rising market volume would fund the 2.5% trading-volume buyback-and-burn mechanism faster than the 10% foundation remint. However, fundamental constraints dominate the current risk profile as of October 2026.
CoinGecko reports only 716.6 billion of the 1.15 trillion maximum supply in circulation, leaving 37.7% uncirculated overhang against roughly $24.0 million in locked value. Rain does not publish audited protocol revenue statements or verified active-user counts.
Furthermore, official Help Center pages contradict each other on whether traders must hold RAIN or whether 2.5% of volume versus 100% of fees funds burns. Until on-chain fee volume and token demand are proven, valuation risk remains elevated.
Pontos fortes
- Arbitrum infrastructure. Native deployment on Arbitrum supports low-cost creation and trading across permissionless public and private prediction markets.
- Builder tooling. SDKs and APIs allow third-party developers to launch custom forecasting applications on shared liquidity.
- Hybrid resolution. Public markets use an AI oracle settlement framework paired with a documented dispute layer for contested outcomes.
- Governance and incentives. RAIN coordinates DAO proposals and rewards market creators, liquidity providers, and outcome resolvers.
- Volume-linked burns. Protocol rules allocate 2.5% of market trading volume toward buying and burning RAIN tokens.
Riscos
- Uncirculated supply. About 37.7% of the 1.15T maximum supply remains outside circulation as of October 2026.
- Valuation vs TVL. Multi-billion-dollar implied valuation sits hundreds of times above the roughly $24.0M locked in protocol contracts.
- Documentation contradictions. Official Help Center pages disagree on whether RAIN ownership is mandatory for market access and how burn rates apply.
- Foundation remint. Reminting 10% of burned tokens for foundation initiatives reduces net deflation from trading activity.
- Settlement disputes. AI-oracle resolution on public markets and creator-resolved private markets carry oracle manipulation and dispute risks.
Posição competitiva
Rain differentiates itself within prediction markets by focusing on builder SDKs, APIs, and hybrid AI-oracle settlement on Arbitrum. Competitors such as Polymarket on Polygon and Azuro across EVM chains command deeper liquidity, higher verified trading volume, and stronger brand recognition.
Posição completaMostrar menos
Rain targets custom private and public market creation, which broadens potential use cases. However, roughly $24.0 million in reported TVL trails its implied valuation by a wide margin.
Without audited fee disclosures or consistent token-utility rules, Rain has yet to establish a durable moat against established prediction venues.
Conclusão
Rain combines Arbitrum prediction-market infrastructure, developer SDKs, AI-assisted settlement, and a 2.5% volume burn mechanism. Despite those product features, the fundamental profile carries an 8/10 risk score as of October 2026.
Conclusão completaMostrar menos
Only 62.3% of the 1.15 trillion maximum supply circulates, protocol TVL near $24.0 million is small relative to valuation, and official docs conflict on token utility. CAUTION remains warranted until Rain demonstrates verified fee generation and consistent tokenomics.
